The January 2026 India Today-CVoter “Mood of the Nation” (MOTN) survey has provided a comprehensive look at the Indian political landscape, specifically focusing on the states gearing up for assembly elections. While the national narrative indicates a significant consolidation for the NDA, the data reveals a different story in key poll-bound states. If Lok Sabha elections were held today, regional heavyweights in the south and east would largely hold their ground, creating a formidable barrier to the BJP’s national momentum.
Regional Forces Hold Firm Against the “Modi Dividend”
One of the most striking takeaways from the latest survey is the resilience of regional parties and the INDIA bloc in states like Tamil Nadu, Kerala, and West Bengal. Despite Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s national approval rating climbing to 57%, voters in these regions continue to show a clear preference for local leadership and regional alliances when it comes to parliamentary representation.
Consulting Editor Rajdeep Sardesai noted that the “big message” of the 2026 MOTN is that regional forces are holding their ground. This makes it increasingly difficult for the BJP to penetrate these states, even as they show strength in other former setbacks like Maharashtra and Rajasthan. The survey highlights a “bipolar” consolidation in several areas, where voters distinguish sharply between central governance and state-level needs.
Also Read: Kerala’s Political Pulse: UDF Holds the Line as BJP Makes Bold Inroads
West Bengal: A Sharp Bipolar Contest
In West Bengal, the battle for supremacy between the Trinamool Congress (TMC) and the BJP remains intense. If elections were held today, the TMC is projected to remain the dominant force, though with a slight dip compared to previous projections. The TMC is expected to secure 28 seats, a minor decrease from the 29 seats it won in 2024.
The BJP, however, is showing signs of a slow but steady climb. The party is projected to win 14 seats, an improvement from the 11-seat projection in the August 2024 survey. In terms of vote share, the BJP-led NDA is expected to see a three-percentage-point rise, moving from 39% to 42%. CVoter founder Yashwant Deshmukh pointed out that West Bengal is increasingly turning into a sharply polarized, bipolar contest, leaving little room for the Congress or the Left.
The South: INDIA Bloc Dominance in Tamil Nadu and Kerala
The southern states remain the strongest bastions for the INDIA bloc. In Tamil Nadu, the survey predicts a near-total sweep for the opposition alliance. If Lok Sabha polls were conducted today, the INDIA bloc is projected to win 38 out of the 39 available seats, mirroring its dominant performance in 2024. The BJP’s efforts to make a significant dent in the Dravidian heartland have yet to translate into seat gains, despite high-visibility campaigning.
Similarly, in Kerala, the UDF and LDF continue to shut out the NDA. The state remains a contest primarily between the two major regional fronts, with the BJP struggling to move beyond its current fringe presence in parliamentary projections. The survey reinforces the idea that the “Modi factor” faces its toughest challenge in the deep south, where regional identity and unique political alignments prevail.
Assam: The NDA’s Fortress in the Northeast
In contrast to the challenges faced in the south and Bengal, the NDA maintains a comfortable and commanding lead in Assam. The survey suggests that the NDA will not only retain its hold but actually tighten its grip on the state if elections were held today. While the INDIA bloc is projected to slip further, the ruling coalition in Assam is benefiting from a consolidation of votes, making it the most secure poll-bound state for the BJP.
National Projections and the Stability Factor
At the national level, the MOTN poll paints a picture of a resurgent NDA. Across India, the NDA is projected to win 352 seats, with the BJP alone crossing the majority mark with 287 seats. This is a significant rise from previous months, fueled by a perception of “political stability” which respondents cited as the government’s primary achievement—ranking even higher than the construction of the Ram Temple or the abrogation of Article 370.
However, the survey also notes significant anxieties. Unemployment remains a major concern for 64% of respondents, and issues like inflation continue to weigh on the public mind. The disconnect between these economic concerns and the high approval ratings for the Prime Minister suggests that the electorate currently views the incumbent leadership as the most reliable option in a period of global turbulence.
As the 2026 assembly elections approach, these MOTN findings serve as a critical barometer. While the BJP enjoys a “Goldilocks period” of national growth and stability, the resilience of the INDIA bloc in key states suggests that the road to total electoral dominance remains blocked by the enduring strength of regional identity.
Also Read: MOTN January 2026: NDA Consolidates Power in Assam as INDIA Bloc Faces Steep Decline