The latest India Today–CVoter Mood of the Nation (MOTN) survey for January 2026 presents a challenging landscape for the opposition, particularly the Congress party. While the INDIA bloc remains the primary challenger to the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA), the survey data suggests that the Congress is increasingly being perceived as the “weakest link” within the coalition. As the political climate shifts ahead of the 2026 assembly elections in several key states, the findings highlight a growing disparity between the BJP’s consolidation and the Congress’s declining electoral footprint.
NDA Rebounds as INDIA Bloc Slips
If Lok Sabha elections were held today, the NDA is projected to secure a commanding 352 seats, a significant rise from the 293 seats it won in the 2024 general elections. This projection indicates that the ruling alliance has regained its 2019-level strength. In contrast, the INDIA bloc, which secured 234 seats in 2024 by punching above its weight, is now projected to fall to 182 seats. This marks a sharp decline from the 208 seats predicted for the alliance in the August 2025 MOTN edition.
The vote share trends further illustrate this widening gap. The NDA’s projected vote share has risen to 47 per cent, up from 44 per cent in the 2024 elections. Meanwhile, the INDIA bloc’s vote share is estimated at 39 per cent, a drop from the 41 per cent it held in August 2023 and immediately following the 2024 results. This two-percentage-point slip reflects a loss of momentum for the opposition over the past six months.
Congress: The Struggle to Convert Popularity into Seats
A deeper look at the party-wise data reveals that the Congress is facing a steady decline in its electoral prospects. The survey projects the Congress to win just 80 seats if polls were held now, which is a sharp dip from the 99 seats it won in 2024 and the 97 seats forecast in August 2025. Its vote share has also receded to 20 per cent, down from a peak of 25 per cent in August 2024.
Interestingly, this decline comes even as Rahul Gandhi’s personal popularity continues to rise. The January 2026 survey shows that 27 per cent of respondents view him as the best-suited candidate for Prime Minister, a massive jump from just 7 per cent in 2022. However, the data suggests that this improved acceptability has not translated into a decisive advantage for the party. The BJP, meanwhile, has recovered strongly; it is projected to win 287 seats on its own, well above the 240 seats it secured in 2024, effectively allowing it to form a government without total reliance on allies.
Regional Parties Outshine the Principal Opponent
The “weakest link” narrative is bolstered by the fact that regional parties within the INDIA bloc appear to be holding their ground more effectively than the Congress. In states like West Bengal, the Trinamool Congress is projected to retain its dominance, with a projected tally of 28 seats—keeping the BJP at bay despite a marginal rise in the saffron party’s vote share.
Observers note that while the alliance commands a substantial collective vote base, the Congress is struggling to anchor the coalition or expand its presence in key battleground states. Critics within the opposition argue that the party’s “vote chori” (vote theft) narrative against the BJP has failed to resonate with the broader public, leaving a vacuum that regional satraps are better equipped to fill.
Leadership Gap and Public Perception
The leadership advantage remains firmly with Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who is the top choice for the country’s top post with 55 per cent support. His approval rating stands at a stable 57 per cent, with voters citing the construction of the Ram Temple and the government’s firm stance on global trade and security as major achievements.
While unemployment and price rise remain significant concerns for 17 per cent and 20 per cent of respondents respectively, these issues have not yet triggered a massive shift toward the Congress. Instead, 29 per cent of respondents explicitly disagreed with the view that Congress is an effective challenger, reflecting a critical public perception of the party’s current strength.
Strains Within the Alliance
These projections are expected to intensify internal debates within the INDIA bloc regarding seat-sharing and leadership. With the Congress projected to lose nearly 20 seats compared to its 2024 performance, regional allies may demand a larger share of the contest in upcoming polls. The survey indicates that while the “Brand Modi” remains intact, the “Brand Congress” is facing an organizational crisis that threatens to undermine the collective effort of the opposition to provide a viable alternative at the national level.