According to the latest India Today-CVoter “Mood of the Nation” (MOTN) survey for January 2026, the political landscape in Tamil Nadu remains a formidable fortress for the INDIA bloc. If Lok Sabha elections were held today, the alliance led by the DMK and Congress is projected to achieve a near-total clean sweep, reinforcing its absolute dominance over the state’s 39 parliamentary seats.
The survey results highlight a significant consolidation of power for the opposition alliance, even as the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) and other regional entrants struggle to convert their growing visibility into tangible electoral victories.
Dominance of the INDIA Bloc and Seat Projections
The January 2026 MOTN projections suggest a commanding performance for the INDIA bloc, which is expected to secure 38 out of the 39 Lok Sabha seats in Tamil Nadu. This result represents a substantial recovery and strengthening of their position compared to previous surveys. While the bloc won all 39 seats in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, subsequent projections in August 2025 had suggested a slight dip to approximately 35–36 seats. However, the latest data shows the alliance bouncing back to near-maximum capacity.
In contrast, the BJP-led NDA is projected to win only a single seat in the state. This marks a downward trend from the August 2025 projection, where the NDA was expected to pick up between 2 and 3 seats. For the NDA, the challenge remains its inability to translate presence into a broad-based seat count, leaving it largely on the fringes of the state’s parliamentary representation.
Vote Share Trends and the Rise of “Others”
While the seat projections show a clear winner, the underlying vote share data reveals a more nuanced and shifting political dynamic. The INDIA bloc remains at the top with a projected 45% of the vote share in January 2026. Although this is a slight decrease from the 48% projected in August 2025 and the 47% achieved in the 2024 general elections, the alliance’s efficiency in converting these votes into seats remains unparalleled in the region.
The NDA has seen a more pronounced decline in its projected vote share, which has fallen to 33% in the latest survey. This is a notable drop from the 37% projected in August 2025 and the 41% recorded in the 2024 results. This trend suggests that while the NDA maintains a significant base, its momentum has stalled over the last several months.
Perhaps the most striking revelation from the January 2026 survey is the steady rise of the “Others” category. This group, which includes smaller regional parties and new political entrants, has seen its vote share grow from 12% in the 2024 elections to 15% in August 2025, and now to a significant 22% in January 2026. A major contributor to this surge is actor-turned-politician Vijay’s party, the Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK), which is alone projected to hold a 15% vote share.
Implications for the 2026 Assembly Elections
The MOTN findings serve as a critical barometer for the upcoming 2026 Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly elections. The data underscores the continued popularity and organizational depth of Chief Minister M.K. Stalin’s leadership. Despite the emergence of new players like TVK, the DMK-led alliance’s ability to maintain a 38-seat projection in a Lok Sabha context suggests a high level of voter satisfaction or, at the very least, a lack of a viable alternative that can match their scale.
However, the 22% vote share held by “Others” indicates an undercurrent of change. While these votes are not yet translating into Lok Sabha seats due to the first-past-the-post system, they represent a significant portion of the electorate looking beyond the two traditional poles of the DMK and AIADMK. For the AIADMK and the BJP, the challenge will be to reclaim this drifting vote share or form strategic alliances that can effectively challenge the INDIA bloc’s hegemony.
As the state moves closer to the 2026 polls, the MOTN survey confirms that Tamil Nadu remains the most challenging terrain for the NDA, while the INDIA bloc continues to demonstrate an enviable grip on the Dravidian heartland. The rise of new entities like the TVK adds a layer of unpredictability, but for now, the status quo heavily favors the incumbent alliance.
Also Read: MOTN Poll 2026: NDA Maintains Lead Amid Rising “Vote Chori” Concerns and Economic Debate