As the political landscape in India shifts toward the next major electoral cycle, the latest January 2026 India Today–CVoter Mood of the Nation (MOTN) survey offers a compelling snapshot of the electorate’s pulse in Kerala. The findings suggest a complex interplay of traditional loyalties and an emerging third force, indicating that if Lok Sabha polls were held today, the state’s political map would see both remarkable stability and significant disruptions.
UDF Maintains Dominance Amidst Slight Vote Share Dip
The Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) continues to hold its ground as the primary choice for Keralites in national elections. According to the latest MOTN data, the UDF is projected to secure 18 seats, a figure that remains unchanged from its performance in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. This stability is noteworthy, especially considering that the previous edition of the survey in August 2025 had also predicted the same 18-seat tally for the alliance.
However, beneath the surface of this consistent seat count lies a subtle shift in voter sentiment. The survey indicates a three-percentage-point drop in the UDF’s vote share compared to the actual results of 2024. While this hasn’t yet translated into a loss of seats, it suggests a tightening race and a potential vulnerability that opponents might look to exploit as the official election season nears.
Also Read: MOTN Poll 2026: NDA Set for 350+ Seat Sweep as INDIA Bloc Momentum Fades
The LDF Struggle and the Rise of the BJP
Perhaps the most striking revelation of the January 2026 survey is the projected performance of the Left Democratic Front (LDF). Despite being the ruling coalition in the state government, the LDF is currently pegged at zero seats for the Lok Sabha. This continues a historical trend where Kerala voters tend to bifurcate their preferences, often favoring the Left for the State Assembly while leaning toward the Congress-led UDF for representation in New Delhi.
Conversely, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) appears to be gaining significant momentum in a state that has historically been difficult for the saffron party to penetrate. The MOTN survey projects the BJP’s seat count to rise to two, doubling its 2024 tally of one seat. More impressively, the BJP’s vote share is expected to jump from 17 percent in 2024 to a substantial 25 percent today. This eight-percentage-point surge highlights a growing acceptance of the NDA’s narrative among the Kerala electorate, potentially turning the traditionally bipolar contest into a more competitive triangular fight.
Regional Trends vs. National Momentum
The shifts in Kerala are occurring against a backdrop of strengthening support for the NDA at the national level. The MOTN survey suggests that if elections were held today, the BJP would be projected to win 287 seats nationally, allowing it to form a government on its own. This is a notable increase from the August 2025 projection of 260 seats.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s personal popularity remains a central factor in this momentum. While his approval rating saw a minor dip from 58 percent in August 2025 to 57 percent in January 2026, he remains the dominant figure in the national political discourse. The survey notes his ability to turn adversity into opportunity, a trait that seems to resonate even in states like Kerala where the BJP has traditionally been an underdog.
Looking Ahead to the Assembly Elections
While the Lok Sabha projections provide a clear lead for the UDF, the survey notes that the upcoming Assembly elections remain a separate challenge. Historically, Kerala has exhibited a “yo-yo” pattern or a distinct preference for the LDF in state-level governance, as seen in the last two Assembly elections.
The current data does not give the UDF a clear upper hand for the state-level contest, suggesting that while voters trust them with national issues, the LDF’s local governance still holds weight. As the state moves closer to both the local and national polls, the significant rise in the BJP’s vote share remains the “X-factor” that could redefine Kerala’s political future. Whether the UDF can arrest its minor decline or the BJP can convert its rising vote share into even more seats will be the defining story of the coming months.
Also Read: MOTN Poll 2026: Regional Giants Stand Firm as NDA Eyes National Consolidation in Poll-Bound States