The latest India Today–CVoter Mood of the Nation (MOTN) survey for January 2026 reveals a significant shift in the political landscape of Assam. If Lok Sabha elections were conducted today, the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA) would not only maintain its dominance but also significantly tighten its grip on the state. Conversely, the INDIA bloc appears to be facing a steep decline in popularity, losing the momentum it had briefly captured during the 2024 general elections.
NDA Surges as INDIA Bloc Falters in Vote Share
The most striking revelation of the MOTN January 2026 survey is the sharp rise in the NDA’s projected vote share. According to the data, the NDA is expected to secure a commanding 54 percent of the total votes in Assam. This represents a substantial growth trajectory when compared to previous milestones. In the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the alliance garnered 47 percent of the vote, which later rose to 49 percent in the August 2025 MOTN survey. This consistent upward trend suggests a consolidation of support for the ruling coalition under the leadership of Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma and Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
In contrast, the INDIA bloc is witnessing a concerning erosion of its base. The survey estimates its vote share at just 33 percent if polls were held today. This marks a significant drop from the 39 percent it achieved in the 2024 general elections and a further decline from the 41 percent projected just a few months ago in August 2025. The widening gap between the two primary political fronts highlights a growing disconnect between the opposition’s narrative and the current sentiment of the Assamese electorate.
Also Read: MOTN Poll 2026: Regional Giants Stand Firm as NDA Eyes National Consolidation in Poll-Bound States
Projected Seat Distribution Favors NDA Dominance
The shift in vote share translates directly into a more formidable seat tally for the ruling alliance. Assam holds a total of 14 Lok Sabha seats, and the January 2026 MOTN survey projects the NDA to win 12 of them. This would be an improvement over the 11 seats the alliance won in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls. Furthermore, it sits at the top end of the 10–12 seat range that was projected in the mid-2025 survey, indicating that the NDA has successfully converted its popularity into a solid electoral advantage.
For the INDIA bloc, the projections are less optimistic. The alliance is expected to secure only 2 seats, a decrease from the 3 seats it managed to win in 2024. While the August 2025 survey had given the opposition a glimmer of hope with a projected range of 2–4 seats, the latest figures suggest that the lower end of that spectrum is now the more likely reality. This suggests that the opposition has failed to capitalize on local issues or sustain the unity required to challenge the NDA’s formidable organizational machinery in the state.
Consolidation of Power Ahead of Assembly Polls
Political observers note that the January 2026 MOTN findings reflect a year of steady consolidation for the NDA. Since mid-2025, the ruling alliance has managed to strengthen its position, likely buoyed by a combination of central welfare schemes and the state government’s proactive governance. The survey indicates that the “Modi factor” remains a potent force in the Northeast, complemented by the local leadership’s ability to navigate complex regional dynamics.
The decline of the INDIA bloc in Assam is particularly notable given the high stakes of the upcoming political season. With several states, including Assam, heading toward assembly elections, these results serve as a significant psychological boost for the BJP-led alliance. The data suggests that the opposition’s momentum has effectively stalled, leaving them with a narrow window to recalibrate their strategy if they hope to prevent a total NDA sweep in the future. As it stands, the political mandate in Assam is clearer and more decisive than it was during the general elections two years ago, pointing toward a period of unchallenged dominance for the NDA.